Kenya’s digital economy growth forecast

The latest GSMA report, Driving Digital Transformation of the Economy in Kenya, projects that by 2028, Kenya's digital economy will contribute KSH 662 billion (approx. US$5.15bn) to its GDP

This growth, driven by strategic policy reforms, will accelerate digitalisation in key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, transport, and trade. The report also forecasts the creation of 300,000 jobs and a KSH 150 billion (approx. US$1.17bn) increase in tax revenues.

Kenya has established itself as a leader in mobile financial services and digital innovation. The government, through Kenya Vision 2030 and the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), recognises digitalisation as a cornerstone of its economic strategy. The GSMA study highlights the economic potential of expanding digital adoption and provides a roadmap to maximise these gains through targeted policies.

To maintain momentum, Kenya is focusing on digitalisation to diversify the economy, increase productivity, and create high-quality jobs, especially for the youth and rural populations. Digitalisation is seen as key to driving economic growth, increasing government revenues, and boosting socio-economic development.

Introducing the digital Africa index

In addition to the report on Kenya’s digital economy, the GSMA launched the Digital Africa Index (DAI), which assesses digital adoption and usage across Africa. The index aims to support policymakers by identifying areas for improvement to accelerate digital transformation. Kenya ranks among Africa’s top performers, underscoring the importance of progressive policies that have enabled mobile broadband adoption and innovation.

With Kenya scoring above 50, the DAI highlights its potential for growth. It also works alongside the Digital Policy and Regulatory Index (DPRI), identifying policy bottlenecks and offering benchmarks for countries aiming to boost their digital economies.

Digitalisation’s impact on economic growth

The GSMA report reveals that digitalisation in key sectors, which account for 58% of Kenya's GDP, will drive significant economic contributions by 2028, creating jobs and boosting tax revenues. In 2023, Kenya’s mobile ecosystem contributed KSH 1.2 trillion (approx. US$9.23bn) to GDP and KSH 212 billion (approx. US$1.65bn) in government revenues. However, the report highlights remaining gaps that must be addressed through bold policies to stimulate demand, reduce supply costs, and encourage investment in telecom infrastructure, mobile money, and digital services.

Closing the Internet Gap

Despite 99% of the population being covered by 3G and 98% by 4G, only 33.5% of Kenyans use mobile internet, leaving a substantial gap. The GSMA projects that this gap could shrink from 63% to 46% by 2028, bringing 1.5 million new users online and increasing mobile money adoption.

Smartphone fffordability and digital inclusion

A separate GSMA report, Barriers to Smartphone Adoption: Kenya Case Study, examines how improving smartphone affordability and access could enhance digital inclusion. While Kenya has extensive mobile coverage, high device costs prevent many from adopting smartphones. The report recommends policy measures such as tax cuts and device financing options to help millions more Kenyans access mobile internet services by 2028. Improving smartphone access would close the internet gap and increase mobile money usage, driving financial inclusion.

Angela Wamola, GSMA Head of Sub-Saharan Africa, noted, “Kenya has made remarkable strides in expanding mobile coverage and services. However, substantial gaps persist. Bold policy initiatives are necessary to boost demand, lower supply costs, and foster investment in digital infrastructure. Such measures promise broad benefits beyond mobile, catalysing productivity across all sectors and generating myriad employment opportunities for Kenya.”