Mobile connectivity’s potential in Sub-Saharan Africa

The mobile industry contributed US$140bn to Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP in 2023 and could reach US$170bn by 2030 if key connectivity challenges are overcome, according to the newly launched Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 Report from GSMA

Mobile technology is pivotal for advancing development in essential sectors like healthcare, education, and finance by broadening internet access and expanding digital services.

As digitalisation continues to progress, the report underscores the importance of 4G, which is projected to represent half of all connections by 2030. Yet, significant challenges remain: 13% of the population lacks coverage, while 60% of those within coverage areas still face barriers such as device affordability, limited digital skills, and concerns over online security.

Beyond connectivity, the region contends with high operational costs, inflation, and volatile energy prices. However, emerging technologies like generative AI and satellite collaborations are offering innovative ways to close gaps across industries. Broader API initiatives, such as GSMA’s Open Gateway, which recently introduced security APIs in South Africa, aim to enhance digital security and streamline services across the region. Tackling these issues is essential for unlocking the socio-economic benefits of mobile connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

“Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile ecosystem,” said Angela Wamola, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa, GSMA. “To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact.”

Key insights from the 2024 report:

* Usage Gap: Despite reaching 27% mobile internet penetration by the end of 2023, the region has a 60% usage gap, representing millions who live within network coverage but are constrained by factors like device affordability, limited digital skills, and online security concerns. Sub-Saharan Africa has the world’s largest usage gap, with 3.1 billion people—39% of the global population—affected by this issue.

* 4G Expansion and 5G Introduction: 4G adoption is expected to reach 50% by 2030, surpassing 3G as the dominant technology. Though 5G is still in its early stages, it is projected to account for 17% of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.

* 5G Economic Potential and Infrastructure: By 2030, 5G alone is expected to contribute US$10bn to the regional economy, representing 6% of the mobile sector's economic impact. The report emphasizes the need for progressive spectrum policies, particularly in the mid-band spectrum, to support growth and equitable digital access. 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is also becoming a preferred broadband option in Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to meet high-speed connectivity needs in underserved regions.

* Digital Security Initiatives: South Africa has become the first Sub-Saharan country to deploy GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focused on fraud prevention and security through Number Verification and SIM Swap APIs. This initiative is part of a broader push to improve digital security, particularly in digital banking.

* Generative AI Opportunities: Generative AI could add up to US$1.5 trillion to Africa's economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI to enhance customer engagement and network efficiency. Operators like MTN and Vodacom are deploying AI-driven initiatives to boost operational efficiency, although the region faces a shortage of skilled AI professionals.

The report outlines several strategic actions to enable sustainable growth and digital inclusion:

* Affordability Initiatives: High costs are a barrier to mobile access. The report advocates for lowering taxes on the sector, such as reducing import duties on handsets and cutting activation fees, to make services more affordable and accessible.

* Reforming Universal Service Funds (USFs): Many USFs in the region are underperforming, often due to inefficiencies. The report calls for reforms to increase transparency, speed up disbursements, and focus funds on impactful initiatives, such as digital literacy programs for underserved communities.

* Progressive Spectrum Policy: To meet growing data demands, governments are urged to release additional spectrum, particularly in the 6 GHz band, and adopt policies that facilitate efficient, affordable, and environmentally sustainable mobile network expansion.