IEA warns AI-driven data centre growth could strain sub-Saharan Africa’s already limited power capacity and supply chains
AI is set to drive surging electricity demand from data centres, currently being rolled out in number across Africa, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
It poses a significant potential challenge for energy providers in sub-Saharan Africa, with the continent already lagging far behind other regions in terms of spare power capacity.
The IEA projects that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), almost as much electricity as the whole of Japan uses today.
“AI is one of the biggest stories in the energy world today – but until now, policy makers and markets lacked the tools to fully understand the wide-ranging impacts,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol, launching a new report.
The rise in global electricity demand is likely to put pressure not only on Africa’s scarce power resources, but even more so in developed regions.
“The effects will be particularly strong in some countries. For example, in the United States, data centres are on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand; in Japan, more than half; and in Malaysia, as much as one-fifth.”
The report notes that Africa has the lowest energy consumption at less than 1 kWh of data centre electricity consumption per capita in 2024, rising to slightly less than 2 kWh per capita by the end of the decade.
However, there are strong differences within the region, with South Africa showing strong growth and per-capita consumption more than 15 times larger than the continental average in 2030, with an intensity higher than 25 kWh per capita.
Moreover, despite the strong increase, data centre electricity demand growth still accounts for less than 10 per cent of global electricity demand growth between 2024 and 2030, the IEA notes.
Other key drivers, such as industry output growth and electrification, the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs), and the adoption of air conditioning, lead the way.
However, it notes, while the absolute growth may appear smaller, data centres, unlike EVs, tend to concentrate in specific locations, making their integration into the grid potentially more challenging.
A diverse range of energy sources will be tapped to meet data centres’ rising electricity needs, according to the report – though renewables and natural gas are set to take the lead due to their cost-competitiveness and availability in key markets.
Across all cases, renewables play a pivotal role in meeting the growing electricity demand, the report notes, however, fossil fuels remain important for meeting the near-term surge in demand up to 2030.
The long-term growth of renewables to meet rising AI and data centre demand could put pressure on the resources needed to complete new clean projects, especially as more developed regions race to build additional capacity.
A major consideration related to the rapid growth of AI and data centres is the demand for critical minerals, the report notes.
Apart from bulk materials like steel and concrete, the construction of data centres requires sizeable amounts of several minerals and metals, such as copper, aluminium, silicon, gallium, rare earth elements and battery minerals.
Here, Africa might also face the task of shoring up its own supply chains, rather than as a supplier of raw materials and commodities to the rest of the world.
“Securing the supply of affordable and reliable power for data centres is at the heart of the challenge of energy for AI,” the report notes.
“In particular, the growing expansion of AI data centres has amplified the urgency of addressing power equipment supply chain constraints.”
Countries that want to benefit from the potential of AI, the report adds, need to quickly accelerate new investments in electricity generation and grids, improve the efficiency and flexibility of data centres, and strengthen the dialogue between policy makers, the tech sector and the energy industry.
